2011 likely size of bank credit has shrunk from 1000 to 2000 billion yuan more than in 2010 .

 " Every week in a meeting , a long sentence is inseparable from the branch to pull deposits ." One big firms such grassroots loan officer describes his current work status , only to pull up deposits , savings and loan basis only for the coming year is more adequate than standard new increase the size of loans .

At this point , they plan to develop in the coming year credit season . The past two weeks , about the size of the banking sector next year 6.5 trillion yuan of credit claims spread like wildfire , and constantly fermentation , coupled with the deposit reserve ratio raised fourth time this year , bank-trust cooperation under strict regulatory restrictions , the current ample liquidity whether the trend reversal will occur next year ? This became most concerned about market proposition .

 Informed sources, from the bank level to the regulatory authorities , the incremental credit from 6000 to 7000 billion yuan , and has indeed become parties to participate in the discussions generally accepted range, plus and this year compared to loans of bank-trust cooperation Table the volume will shrink about 500 billion yuan , which means that the credit scale planned in 2011 than in 2010 shrunk 1 trillion yuan and 20,000 yuan.

 However, as senior regulators said, " banks have ingrained scale complex" Banks in 2011 whether it will achieve this goal strict ? As we all know , this year, the banking capital trapped in the contact line , tight loan-deposit ratio , loan size is strictly limited under , many banks also appeared in several red -scale move by the Bank of punishment directed to raise the deposit reserve . Banking analysts said that next year all listed banks completed the refinancing , described as " forage sufficient " scale control of bank profitability contradictory impulses and between regulatory authorities , may be increasingly nervous.

How to Make the credit scale

 " When ICBC in October next year to develop an initial credit schemes , in accordance with the basic goal of the overall incremental 7 trillion yuan to develop ." One senior banking sources, based on past experience , when each line has a credit plan will generally overstated Some .

CCB executives also said that at the time of its issuance roadshow , CCB in 2011 compared to this year, there will be no new credit fluctuations , keeping the original level , and will be slightly adjusted according to requirements of the competent authorities .

Informed sources, by convention , the relevant provisions of the Bank according to the central bank , the credit reporting preparation planning , and the development of each line of credit is to leave the planning branch of the company's business in accordance with the end of the year fight for customers, as well as the completion of the business case of the year , up reporting ; Branch after collecting banks reporting , the head office and then communicate with the central bank , to determine the overall amount , depending on the circumstances and the final regional economic development of the industry , the size allocated to each of the branches .

Central planning and communication based on reported cases, the preparation of a variety of factors into account monetary planning , determine the amount of bank loans increased annual guidance plan on this basis , as the central bank monitoring of macro-control goals .

For example , go to the central bank by the end of the year, broad money M2 growth target set at 17% , corresponding to the size of new loans 70,000 yuan. But in the communication process , the banking industry generally believe that this goal too tight, the final outcome of bargaining becomes 7.5 trillion yuan , "take care of 500 billion yuan ."

At this point is not finished, this goal also brought the end of the Central Economic Work Conference held discussions after the local government leaders for their support.

"The most worried about is next year general local government , local general should be considered ahead of the results , where the impulse is still there ." Beijing accusing him of a credit point to understand the next year , head of credit driving force.

" Under normal circumstances, the banking credit added next year should be about 6 trillion yuan , but the financing platform loans still variable ." Preceding accusing him credit department official said , only hopes next year to embark on government financing platform specification , " not enough credit the loan conditions ."

Banking analyst Shi Lei said that even if half of local financing platform loans classified as general corporate loans, the stock is still more than 30,000 yuan probably need close to 1 trillion yuan of funds Xudai , if 6 trillion yuan to meet the real economy needs, the actual increase should last 70,000 yuan

Bank-trust cooperation variables

 Financing class bank-trust cooperation has also become a major credit scale next year variable .

Trust with interest , according to studio chief analyst Li Yang to preliminary estimates, in 2010 the total size of bank-trust cooperation products of about 1.8 trillion yuan , including bank-trust cooperation financing products ( including credit transfer and trust loans two types of products ) accounted for over 60% , or about 1 trillion yuan . " Most of trust within the two-year period will expire financial products ." He said.

 " 2010 actual credit should be added in the 8.5 trillion yuan or so ," a senior banker stressed that the bank letter of cooperation from the years since has been strictly limited, so there is no room for maneuvers taking into next year , bank lending in the development plan will add some .

 "As long as austerity policies do not change , financing is difficult class silver letters bigger scale of cooperation , trust route through bank credit scale maneuvers basic channels are blocked ." One big firms finance department official said .

Since the end of last year to September this year , the CBRC year bursts of five documents, the Trust will regulate bank route through the table to the table outside the business maneuvers .

One with the largest is August 10 , the CBRC issued a document on cooperation in silver letters finance products issued normative views , from the " one size fits all " becomes a conditional release. The report, " cooperation on financial regulation Fan Yinxin business related matters," ( hereinafter referred to as " Man No. 72 " ) , for the financing bank letter of cooperation the product of class balance management , in fact, set up a 30% of the red line , that is the balance of the financing business class silver letters bank letter of financial services cooperative representing the balance of cooperation shall be no higher than 30% ; while requiring commercial banks in the next two years will be required to transfer funds to the table sheet .

Click the red line , the next two years into the product table in silver letters should be around 500 to 600 billion yuan . This will also be diverted part of the new credit facility .

" 72 Man " is issued , the balance sheet of the channel means that commercial bank credit is greatly compressed, every past tightening macro-control policy , bank credit to circumvent the regulatory route through the grand Trust will cease to exist . Credit asset class financial products that decrease the amount issued during the month , after the monthly decline significantly reduce the total amount .

And in early September CBRC issued the " trust net capital management approach" to further strengthen the trust of the size constraints , but also bring significant impact on the circulation of bank-trust cooperation credit class financial

products. According to research firm financial wealth of general interest statistics show that as of the end of October 2010 , all bank-trust cooperation products ( including financing and securities investment classes , etc.) account for only about 20 % of all financial products scale , far less than the end of last year, 60 %, 70 % of the peak ; October , co- product silver letters of credit classes only 4 % of all bank-trust cooperation products.

" No. '72 Man ' issued after the effect is obvious ." An insider close to the regulatory authorities revealed that the current bank letter of financing products to decline rapidly , with the maturity and balance sheet turn table , " wait until the first half of next year finished digesting . later trusts will not have a negative impact on the macro-control . "

Bank size impulse remains